Sep 26 2009
The Day the Dollar Goes Chernobyl: An Exercise in (Meta)Physics
And now for a little exercise in (meta)physics for over the weekend.
Economists schooled in the theories of von Mises and Hayek have been warning of the dollar’s imminent collapse for some time now. Images of Germany in October 1923 (or Zimbabwe this year) illustrate governments’ fiscal policies run amok. And yet, the U.S. Dollar as a reserve currency maintains itself in relation to other benchmark currencies around the world. There doesn’t seem to be much sign of weakness in this corner of the otherwise lumbering economy.
And that’s what’s so worrying.
For some reason, I’ve been noticing flash-points in nature. Such as the moment enough heat interacts with the compounds atop a match head, causing a swift flare-up of enormous size compared to the chemicals. Or a thick, grey cumulus cloud passing overhead, looming dark and threatening, suddenly releasing a torrential downpour without warning. I believe these are examples of the second law of thermodynamics in action.
Flash-points occur in the man-made world as well, sort of metaphysical copies of natural law. And can happen with similar, unexpected violence.
In the early morning hours of April 26, 1986, workers at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant decided to test the safety procedures of Reactor 4. They reduced its power to bare minimum levels, to see how the reactor would behave if it had to be depowered in an emergency.
After the test, the workers increased power to bring it back online. The reactor remained at the bare minimum.
The workers increased the power a little more, expecting the reactor to kick in. But it didn’t. Still at bare minimum power. The supervisor nodded for another increase. And another. The workers brought up the power to normal operating level. And…
BANG!
A flash-point had been surpassed. Suddenly. Unexpectedly.
It wasn’t gradual. It wasn’t measurable. It just happened. It was a property of physics that hadn’t fully been taken into account.
The rest is history. Thousands dead. Mass contamination. An unforgettable, historic disaster.
Back to the present day, and the worst of the economic crisis appears to be in the past. The new administration warns of more clean-up ahead. This involves continuing to create huge amounts of credit out of thin air, and floating vast loans with bonds “promising to pay” at some time in the future.
Investors, well, those who survived the slaughter of autumn 08, appear confident in the dollar. It’s their last refuge. Stocks have been flat, and commodities have remained in the basement. So what’s left except the greenback?
While investors are pumping their hopes into the dollar, the government has not seen fit to change its ways. In fact, it intends to fight fire with a daisy-cutter and triple the actions that brought on this crisis in the first place.
The Fed has widened the credit line like the Grand Canyon, the Treasury department is floating their loans in record auctions, and investors are buying them up, insecure about the path they’re treading but certain there is nowhere else to put their money.
Like a financial Reactor 4, the sluggish banking system is being injected with more and more credit. More and more cash will be have to be disbursed. More and more government-backed securities will choke the marketplace.
They will spend more, and buy more, and print more…
Question is, when is the flash-point? The point at which the banking system melts down faster than Reactor 4, spewing hyper-inflation all across the world?
At what point will the last refuge of the global investor crumble, and her/his investments get consumed in a conflagration entirely made by an irresponsible, unrealistic government completely at the mercy of an unpredictable but inviolable natural law?
Most importantly, do the movers and makers of this imminent exercise in natural physical laws understand what’s happening? Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke seems to think he can shut the pressure valve in time to stop an explosion. He must think the Fed can call in its loans and raise interest rates just as the irruption begins.
But nature has a funny way of defying expectations while still remaining true to physics. The dollar may well go Chernobyl one early morning while the rest of us are tucked in bed.
It remains for We the People to hold onto our umbrellas and hope the next torrential downpour won’t be in worthless greenbacks.






